When India overtook China in 2025 to become the world’s largest producer and exporter of rice, the moment was celebrated as a symbol of farmer resilience, policy support and food security success. With exports crossing 20 million metric tonnes and a share of nearly 40% in global rice trade, India has emerged as the single most influential actor in the international rice market. Yet beneath this impressive achievement lies a deepening paradox: the very policies that power India’s rice dominance are eroding groundwater, trapping farmers in debt, and undermining long-term agricultural sustainability.
A Record Harvest with Invisible Costs
Rice production has expanded steadily over the past decade, driven by assured procurement under the Minimum Support Price (MSP) regime and strong global demand. For importing countries in Africa and Asia, India’s rice exports are critical for food security and price stability. Domestically too, rice underpins the Public Distribution System, feeding hundreds of millions.
However, rice is among the most water-intensive crops. Its concentration in semi-arid regions of northern India, particularly Punjab and Haryana, has placed extraordinary stress on groundwater resources. These States, which once benefited from canal irrigation and shallow aquifers, now face a slow-moving ecological crisis.
Deeper Borewells, Rising Debt
On the ground, the crisis is visible in the depth of borewells. In many parts of Punjab and Haryana, groundwater that was accessible at around 30 feet a decade ago is now found at depths of 80 to 200 feet. Official assessments and university research confirm that a majority of blocks in these States are now classified as “over-exploited” or “critical”.
Each fall in the water table imposes new costs. Farmers must drill deeper borewells, invest in stronger pumps and consume more electricity. While power subsidies cushion immediate expenses, they do not eliminate capital costs, pushing many cultivators into cycles of borrowing. Even years of good monsoon rainfall fail to restore aquifers, as extraction continues unchecked.
Subsidies That Lock Farmers into Rice
At the heart of the problem lies India’s subsidy architecture. Rice cultivation is supported by a rising MSP — up by around 70% over the past decade — and heavily subsidised or free electricity for irrigation. Together, these guarantees make rice the least risky crop for farmers, regardless of environmental costs.
This creates a perverse outcome. One of the world’s most water-stressed countries is effectively incentivising farmers to grow one of the most water-guzzling crops. Alternatives such as millets, pulses or oilseeds require far less water, but offer neither comparable price assurance nor procurement certainty. For farmers operating on thin margins, ecological logic cannot compete with income security.
The Political Limits of Reform
Efforts to disrupt this equilibrium face powerful political resistance. The rollback of the 2020–21 farm laws, which aimed partly to diversify procurement channels and reduce MSP dependence, remains a cautionary tale. Large-scale protests, especially from Punjab and Haryana, underscored how deeply rice procurement is intertwined with livelihoods, rural credit systems and regional politics.
Since then, governments have preferred incremental nudges rather than structural reform. The political lesson has been clear: any perceived threat to MSP-backed rice cultivation risks destabilising a key agricultural constituency.
Global Responsibility, Domestic Dilemmas
India today produces far more rice than it requires for domestic consumption, even as its population continues to grow. The question is no longer about capacity, but about choice. Should India continue exporting rice at current levels when