When India emerged as the world’s largest producer and exporter of rice, the achievement was celebrated as evidence of farmer resilience and effective state support. Crossing 20 million metric tonnes in exports and overtaking traditional leaders signalled not only market dominance but also geopolitical relevance, as India became the single most influential actor in global rice trade. Yet beneath this success lies a troubling paradox. In the rice heartlands of Punjab and Haryana, the very policies that ensured production stability are driving an ecological crisis that threatens the long-term sustainability of Indian agriculture.
A record harvest with rising rural stress
Rice cultivation in northern India has expanded steadily over the past decade, buoyed by assured procurement and rising minimum support prices. For farmers, rice offers income certainty unmatched by most alternatives. However, this apparent security masks mounting distress. In many villages, groundwater that could once be accessed at shallow depths now lies far below the surface. Borewells that earlier reached water at 30 feet are today drilled to depths of 80 to 200 feet. Each additional metre translates into higher costs for drilling, electricity, and maintenance, pushing farmers into debt even in years of good yields.
This pattern reveals a deeper truth: higher output does not necessarily mean greater sustainability or rural well-being. Rising production figures coexist with shrinking natural capital, eroding the foundation on which future agriculture depends.
Structural vulnerability of Punjab and Haryana
Punjab and Haryana are uniquely exposed to groundwater depletion because of their irrigation structure. Unlike eastern and southern India, where canals, tanks, and rainfall play a larger role, rice cultivation in these states relies overwhelmingly on groundwater. This dependence makes them especially sensitive to excessive extraction.
Official assessments classify large parts of both states as “over-exploited” or “critical” aquifers. Annual groundwater withdrawal exceeds natural recharge by 35–57%, indicating that water is being mined rather than replenished. Even consecutive years of good monsoon rainfall have failed to reverse this trend, underscoring that the crisis is structural, not cyclical.
The subsidy trap and distorted incentives
At the heart of the problem lies a powerful policy feedback loop. Guaranteed procurement and steadily rising minimum support prices make rice cultivation financially attractive, while heavily subsidised electricity reduces the apparent cost of pumping groundwater. Together, these incentives lock farmers into a water-intensive cropping pattern, even as aquifers decline.
This creates a perverse outcome: in one of the world’s most water-stressed countries, public policy effectively encourages the cultivation of one of the most water-guzzling crops. Switching to alternatives such as millets or pulses often entails giving up income certainty, making diversification economically risky for farmers.
Exporting rice, exporting water
Rice has a substantial water footprint. Producing one kilogram of rice in India requires an estimated 3,000–4,000 litres of water, significantly higher than the global average. In Punjab and Haryana, where paddy fields are flooded for extended periods, the footprint is even heavier.
India already produces more rice than it needs for domestic consumption. Exporting surplus rice therefore also means exporting “virtual water” — the water embedded in agricultural commodities. When this water is drawn from regions with collapsing aquifers, export success comes at a hidden ecological cost.
Climate change and the illusion of resilience
Recent good monsoons have created a misleading sense of security. Rainfall alone cannot offset decades of excessive groundwater extraction. Climate change is expected to increase rainfall variability,