India’s rise to become the world’s fourth-largest economy in nominal GDP terms marks a defining moment in its post-Independence economic journey. With output estimated at around $4.18 trillion, India has overtaken Japan, placing itself behind only the United States, China and Germany. This achievement reflects decades of growth, reform and resilience, and confirms India’s growing weight in the global economic order. Yet, behind the celebration lies a deeper paradox: India’s economic scale has expanded rapidly, but average prosperity remains modest for a large share of its population.
The journey to fourth place
India’s climb up the global economic rankings has been unusually swift. As recently as 2014, the country was the world’s 10th-largest economy, with GDP of around $2 trillion. For nearly seven decades after Independence, India struggled to break into the top ten, constrained by low growth, limited industrialisation and structural rigidities. The past decade, however, has marked a decisive break from that history.
By 2021, India crossed the $3 trillion mark, and within just four years added another trillion dollars to its economy, overtaking Japan. Projections by the International Monetary Fund suggest that India’s nominal GDP will reach about $4.5 trillion in 2026, marginally ahead of Japan, indicating that this ranking is not a statistical fluke but part of a durable trend.
Drivers of rapid growth
India’s ascent has been powered by sustained high growth rates and notable resilience during periods of global stress. Between 1990 and 2023, the economy grew at an average annual rate of around 6.7%, outperforming most advanced economies. Even during global slowdowns, trade disruptions and geopolitical shocks, India has remained the fastest-growing major economy.
Recent momentum has been particularly strong. Growth in 2025–26 reached a six-quarter high, driven largely by domestic demand. Private consumption has remained robust, credit growth healthy, and public investment supportive. This internal demand base has helped cushion India from external headwinds that have slowed other economies.
The reform backbone
Structural reforms over the past decade have provided a critical foundation for this growth. The introduction of the Goods and Services Tax created a unified national market, reduced transaction costs and significantly improved tax compliance. Rising GST collections reflect both greater formalisation and expanding economic activity.
Equally important has been the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, which strengthened the financial system by speeding up the resolution of stressed assets and restoring bank balance sheets. Digital public infrastructure, manufacturing incentives, and timely fiscal and monetary interventions during downturns have further stabilised growth. Political stability at the Centre has also bolstered investor confidence, positioning India as an attractive destination in a fragmented global economy.
Global confidence, domestic caution
Multilateral institutions and rating agencies broadly endorse India’s growth outlook. The World Bank, OECD and Asian Development Bank project growth of 6–7% through 2026–27, reinforcing India’s status as a global growth engine. Yet these optimistic forecasts coexist with serious domestic challenges that temper the meaning of India’s new ranking.
The prosperity paradox
Despite its economic size, India’s per capita income remains low. With a population of about 1.4 billion, GDP gains are spread thin. In 2024, India’s per capita GDP stood at roughly $2,700, ranking around 122nd globally. This contrasts sharply with Japan’s per capita income of over $32,000 and Germany’s above $56,000. Even among emerging economies, India trails several peers such as Vietnam and the Philippines.
This gap underscores a fundamental tension: becoming a