Climate Change May Shrink Nilgiri Wood Pigeon Habitat by 2100

MaxEnt Study Warns of Future Range Contraction in Western Ghats Endemic

A recent study indicates that climate change could significantly reduce suitable habitat for the Nilgiri Wood Pigeon by the end of the century. Endemic to the Western Ghats, the species may experience sharp declines in high-quality habitat zones under projected warming scenarios, raising long-term conservation concerns despite its current stable status.

Predictive Modelling Using MaxEnt

The study, published in the Proceedings of the Indian National Science Academy , applied the MaxEnt machine-learning model to assess habitat suitability. Researchers analysed 9,757 records from the eBird database, identifying 117 verified presence locations. Nine bioclimatic variables were incorporated to model future climatic shifts.

Results suggest a non-linear response. Between 2021 and 2040, moderate warming may temporarily expand suitable areas into lower montane zones. However, projections for 2081–2100 indicate a steep reduction in high-suitability habitats, leading to fragmentation and range contraction.

A Specialist of Western Ghats “Sky Islands”

The Nilgiri Wood Pigeon occupies high-elevation wet evergreen forests in the Nilgiris and Anamalai Hills, with smaller populations in isolated hill systems. These “sky islands” are ecologically distinct, harbouring high endemism but limited dispersal pathways.

Its restricted elevational band and reliance on intact forest canopy make it sensitive to deforestation, infrastructure expansion and climatic shifts.

Up-Slope Shifts and Ecological Limits

Warming trends may initially push populations upward. Yet sustained temperature rise compresses available habitat near mountain summits, limiting long-term survival options. Although currently listed as “Least Concern” by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), assessments rely largely on estimated distribution rather than comprehensive demographic surveys.

Important Facts for Exams

• Nilgiri Wood Pigeon is endemic to the Western Ghats biodiversity hotspot.

• MaxEnt is widely used for species distribution modelling.

• “Sky islands” are isolated high-elevation ecosystems.

• Up-slope shifting occurs as species respond to rising temperatures.

Researchers recommend climate-resilient conservation planning, long-term monitoring and periodic reassessment to safeguard this montane endemic amid accelerating climate variability.